New Zealand Celsias

John Key’s chief science advisor says that argy bargy over the causes of climate change is undermining public confidence in the science behind it.

Confusion over the knowns and unknowns of climate change has caused the community to become unsure about whether Governments were justified in making tough policy decisions, Sir Peter Gluckman told a Victoria University seminar on key policy changes facing New Zealand.

Sir Peter told the seminar much of the debate was driven by economic interests, the most powerful sceptic lobby being the fossil fuel industry. Other sceptics included economic libertarians who believed in the mantra of growth and the power of technology to extract the planet from any tight spots and science-denying creationists, reported the Herald.

These groups sought to “actively confuse or convince the public and the media that the consensus is not based on sound science.”

Sir Peter told the gathered crowd while there was “no debate” there had been a baseline shift in global temperatures – which would continue to increase even if emissions were halted tomorrow – uncertainty remained over the likelihood of catastrophic flips, where large-scale melting of ice sheets or release of frozen methane could cause large and rapid climate shifts.

Sir Peter also chided the “alarmists”, who incorrectly used science to present a worst case scenario to push for action. However, he said while it was “bad science” on the alarmists part, the effects of underestimation were worse.

"If we underestimate, then in 2050 our species might find itself facing an inhospitable future on an irreversibly degraded planet. If we overestimate, then in 2050 we might find that we have over-invested in climate change mitigation, but most of those mitigation strategies, such as sustainable energy generation, will help to meet our other challenges."